Originally published January 23, 2007
When US Air Force AC-130 gunships attacked Al-Qaeda targets in southern Somalia on 7 and 8 January, the US made a noisy public entrance into the burgeoning conflict in the Horn of Africa.
The US had already been operating in Somalia behind the scenes. Washington gave diplomatic backing to Ethiopia's invasion of Somalia in December 2006 in support of Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG). The UN-backed TFG had previously only been a minor player in Somalia, exiled to the southern city of Baidoa while rival militias fought it out in the capital Mogadishu.
The US (likely the CIA) also backed anti-Islamist militias in Mogadishu in the last few years, and when that information became public in early 2006 it seemed to give momentum to the Islamist forces, who took control of Mogadishu in June. More recently, US military officials have acknowledged that there are a small number of special operations forces now in Somalia hunting for Al-Qaeda members.
The Ethiopian invasion allowed the TFG to take power in Mogadishu for the first time, but members of the previous Islamist ruling group, the Supreme Council of Islamic Courts (SCIC), have vowed to continue the fight as guerillas.
The US "long war"
At this point it is unclear what the future US military role in Somalia might be. But since the 11 September 2001 attacks, the US has been increasing its military presence in the Horn of Africa, believing the region to be of vital strategic importance and very likely a possible base for future Al-Qaeda operations.
Since 2002, the US has operated a small base near Somalia in Djibouti, which hosts the Combined Joint Task Force Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA). Now numbering about 1,500 troops, CJTF-HOA focuses on training regional militaries (in particular Ethiopia, Kenya, Djibouti and Yemen) and goodwill-building civil affairs projects such as medical and veterinary clinics.
CJTF-HOA officials have acknowledged that when they started operating in Djibouti they expected to find a much larger Al-Qaeda presence in the Horn of Africa than was the case. Consequently, direct action has been a minor part of the task force's mission. One exception was the 2002 missile strike from a US Predator drone that killed suspected Al-Qaeda members in Yemen; the Predator is believed to have been launched from Djibouti. And the AC-130 strikes on 9 January are also thought to have originated from Djibouti, but the US has never acknowledged the role of CJTF-HOA in either strike, or in CIA training of anti-Islamist militias in Mogadishu.
However, the task force has developed into what many believe could be a model for the US "long war" against Islamist terrorist groups. By focusing on so-called "phase zero" operations those that happen before a conflict has started the US believes it can stop the states of the Horn of Africa from developing into rogue states such as the Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.
CJTF-HOA has focused its civil affairs projects and military training on areas surrounding Somalia, with the aim of helping the governments in those areas to manage their own affairs and to contain whatever unrest may break out. However, the small scale of the projects amid the vast problems of eastern Africa has led observers to question whether the task force will have any significant impact.
Patrolling the seas
CJTF-HOA has a maritime analogue, Combined Task Force (CTF) 150, which is based at the US Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT) headquarters in Bahrain but patrols the area around Somalia, as well as the Red Sea and parts of the Indian Ocean.
CTF 150 is a more international operation it is currently commanded by a British commodore and includes ships from the US, UK, Germany, France, Pakistan and the Netherlands. However, since the unrest in Somalia, US Navy officials say that only US ships are patrolling the coast of Somalia.
The navy has moved the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) to the coast of Somalia in reaction to the TFG takeover of Mogadishu, in the hopes of interdicting Al-Qaeda members fleeing Somalia. The Eisenhower joins four US ships already in the area as part of CTF 150: USS Bunker Hill (CG 52), USS Ramage (DDG 61), USS Anzio (CG 68) and USS Ashland (LSD 48).
The participants in CTF 150 patrol the sea lanes between Somalia and the Arabian peninsula to deter or interdict terrorists or weapons in transit. In addition, the task force has recently taken on an anti-piracy mission, as US officials believe that, as on land, lawlessness at sea could breed terrorism.
Somalia's ill will
The involvement in Somalia marks a return for the US to a country it fled ignominiously in 1993. It is not clear what it hopes to gain from the recent AC-130 attacks. The US initially said that it killed Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, who was wanted in relation to the bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998. It now appears that he was not killed. Two other alleged suspects from the 1998 bombings, Abu Talha al-Sudani and Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, are also thought to be in Somalia.
But even if the strike had killed Mohammed, it would seem to be a petty gain far outweighed by the ill will US involvement in Somalia promises to engender. The SCIC was respected by many Somalis because it brought order to Mogadishu for the first time in 15 years. Although some SCIC members allegedly had connections to Al-Qaeda, the council had publicly denounced terrorism and declared its intention to co-operate with the US and Europe.
US backing of the ineffectual TFG not only encourages the impression that the US is at war with Islam, but also that it does not care about the security of ordinary Somalis. It also threatens to enmesh the US in what is taking on the character of a wider regional war Eritrea and some Arab states have supported the SCIC forces against the TFG and its backers in Ethiopia and the US.
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